{"id":42615,"date":"2024-01-30T14:28:47","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T22:28:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldco.com\/?p=42615"},"modified":"2025-01-13T14:24:47","modified_gmt":"2025-01-13T22:24:47","slug":"as-fed-meets-wall-street-wants-to-know-when-rates-cut-will-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldco.com\/as-fed-meets-wall-street-wants-to-know-when-rates-cut-will-start\/","title":{"rendered":"As Fed Meets, Wall Street Wants to Know When Rates Cut Will Start"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week for its first monetary policy meeting of the year. While no one expects the Fed to cut rates at this meeting, they\u2019re at least expecting to get some hint at when the Fed might begin to cut rates.<\/p>\n

Right now markets are expecting just under a 50\/50 chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at its March meeting. This is a change from December, when markets had somehow convinced themselves that a March rate cut was a done deal.<\/p>\n

In fact, if you look at bond yields, the yield on the 10-year Treasury<\/a> has risen back almost to where it was before the December FOMC meeting, after having dropped 20-30 basis points after that meeting. So the rate cuts that markets had been pricing in are now being priced back out again.<\/p>\n

But while the odds of rate cuts in March are declining, most people think that interest rates will be lower by May, with markets expecting an 88% chance of lower interest rates<\/a> by then. Still, there are some headwinds that are working against the possibility of rate cuts. Here are just a few.<\/p>\n

1. The Fed Hasn\u2019t Beaten Inflation<\/h2>\n

Everyone seems to forget that the Fed hasn\u2019t whipped inflation yet. While inflation rates may not be as high as they were in 2022, they\u2019re still at 3.4% year on year, with a recent upward trend.<\/p>\n

You wouldn\u2019t know that from reading the news, however, with multiple so-called experts trying to claim that the Fed should declare victory against inflation. But just like Mark Twain, the reports of inflation\u2019s demise are greatly exaggerated.<\/p>\n

Some Fed officials realize that, which is why they\u2019re continuing to monitor inflation. And with two more inflation reports coming out before the March FOMC meeting, the Fed should have all the information it needs by March to determine which way inflation is trending, and how movements in inflation should impact monetary policy.<\/p>\n

Even if the Fed does decide that higher inflation is palatable, it\u2019s unlikely that it\u2019s going to cut rates if inflation remains above 3%. Without a firm and sustained trend downward, the Fed doesn\u2019t want to risk overheating the economy by cutting rates at a time it deems to be too early.<\/p>\n

2. Job Market Isn\u2019t Too Bad Yet<\/h2>\n

Despite the many companies that are downsizing and tightening their belts, that isn\u2019t being reflected in labor market statistics. Read the monthly jobs reports and you\u2019d think that the economy is growing by leaps and bounds and putting more people to work.<\/p>\n

The unemployment rate is still a low 3.7%, and there aren\u2019t any expectations for that to change. As long as labor market statistics continue the way they are, they\u2019re not going to put any pressure on the Fed to cut rates.<\/p>\n

3. High-Flying Stock Markets<\/h2>\n

Stock markets continue to hit all-time highs, which is puzzling. Earnings and forward guidance for many companies have been disappointing, yet stock prices continue to surge.<\/p>\n

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 have hit new record highs, despite the fact that the Fed has trimmed over $1 trillion from its balance sheet. The Fed\u2019s quantitative tightening hasn\u2019t really had a negative effect on stock markets.<\/p>\n

Part of that could be the fact that the money supply is no longer falling, and is actually growing again. It\u2019s going to take some deep diving to see why exactly that\u2019s happening, but that could be one factor.<\/p>\n

The other factor is that markets could be going on a tear because they\u2019re hopeful of rate cuts. And every piece of news that fits into the rate cut narrative is seen as a reason to keep buying.<\/p>\n

If that\u2019s the case, then this market rally may very well fizzle out once reality sets in. But until then, the Fed is likely going to be unwilling to cut rates in the face of a hot market.<\/p>\n

The last thing the Fed wants to be known as is an agency that exists to boost stock market returns. So with markets already at record highs, that\u2019s another reason for the Fed to exercise caution with its rate cut decision.<\/p>\n

How This Impacts You<\/h2>\n

If you\u2019ve continued plowing money into stock markets over the past year or two, you\u2019re probably welcoming the new record highs. Many Americans who are purchasing stocks are likely enjoying seeing their retirement account balances continuing to grow.<\/p>\n

But at some point all of this will change. There\u2019s a reason companies are pulling back on earning forecasts and tightening their belts.<\/p>\n

American households are incredibly indebted and financially overburdened, and consumer spending is likely to falter this year. As consumer spending drops, so too could the economy.<\/p>\n

In all likelihood the Fed will have to cut rates at some point this year, but it will be to try to counteract a developing recession. And when rate cuts do come, it could be a warning sign that there is worse to come.<\/p>\n

Many Americans who foresee the coming recession have already taken steps to protect their financial assets with precious metals like gold and silver<\/a>. And there\u2019s still time for those who haven\u2019t to figure out how to protect themselves before recession comes.<\/p>\n

No one knows how bad the next recession will be, but given how large the debt bubble has gotten, it could be worse than 2008. Can you afford to leave yourself open to 50% or greater losses like 2008?<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re looking to protect yourself against recession, gold and silver can be one way of doing that. Gold and silver have served as safe haven assets for centuries, helping protect wealth through good times and bad.<\/p>\n

Goldco offers quality gold and silver coins from mints around the world, directly from the source. And with over $2 billion precious metals placements and over 5,000 5-star reviews<\/a> from our customers, we\u2019ve become one of the most trusted names in precious metals.<\/p>\n

If you want to learn more about how gold and silver can help safeguard your financial future, call Goldco today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this week for its first monetary policy meeting of the year. While no one expects the Fed to cut rates at this meeting, they\u2019re at least expecting to get some hint at when the Fed might begin to cut rates. Right now markets are expecting just under […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":42616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[207,208],"tags":[220,221,623],"class_list":["post-42615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-federal-reserve","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-stock-markets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAs Fed Meets, Wall Street Wants to Know When Rates Cut Will Start – Goldco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed won't cut rates this week, but Wall Street is looking for clues to see when rate cuts might begin.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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