{"id":37995,"date":"2022-06-16T04:51:57","date_gmt":"2022-06-16T11:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldco.com\/?p=37995"},"modified":"2024-09-04T12:00:32","modified_gmt":"2024-09-04T19:00:32","slug":"shoulda-woulda-coulda-why-the-fed-is-behind-the-curve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldco.com\/shoulda-woulda-coulda-why-the-fed-is-behind-the-curve\/","title":{"rendered":"Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda: Why the Fed Is Behind the Curve"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After the events of the past week, markets are finally starting to realize two things. First, the Federal Reserve hasn\u2019t done enough yet to curb inflation. Second, the Fed\u2019s attempts to curb inflation should have started a long time ago.<\/p>\n<p>That much is apparent to anyone who has been a longtime observer of monetary policy. It isn\u2019t as though this is the first time the Fed has been caught behind the curve. But this time, being behind the curve could end up destroying trillions of dollars of wealth.<\/p>\n<h2>Monetary Policy and Time<\/h2>\n<p>One of the characteristics of monetary policy, one which even the Fed will admit to, is that it operates with a lag. The effects of monetary policy actions on the economy take months to see. And because it can take months to establish trends in economic data and to really confirm whether or not an economy is growing or declining, or whether inflation is rising or falling, central bankers tend to wait until they have absolute certainty before deciding on a course of action.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, right now we\u2019re finding out in real time the drawbacks of that hesitation. And unfortunately this current crisis is solely of the Fed\u2019s making.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed first tried to deny that inflation was occurring. Then it tried to claim that inflation was transitory. And only once inflation really started to take off did the Fed try to do anything to stop it.<\/p>\n<p>Had the Fed already started taking action 6-9 months ago, we might not be in the situation we\u2019re in right now. But 6-9 months ago the Fed was still in monetary easing mode, purchasing Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to add to its bloated balance sheet.<\/p>\n<p>Had the Fed halted those purchases at the first sign of inflation, and begun hiking rates sooner and more aggressively, there\u2019s a chance that we wouldn\u2019t be sitting at an 8.6% inflation rate right now. But the Fed waited for too long, denying the reality that was staring it in the face, and so we\u2019re in the situation we\u2019re in.<\/p>\n<p>Even yesterday\u2019s 75 basis point increase was a case of too little, too late. Between anemic rate increases and small reductions in the balance sheet, it\u2019s highly likely that nothing will change with regard to inflation in the coming months.<\/p>\n<p>We have three more Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings before the midterm elections, only two of which could impact inflation rates before the election. Assuming a 75 basis point increase at subsequent FOMC meetings, we\u2019re looking at a federal funds rate of 3.75-4.00% by November, or 4.50-4.75% by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed is also phasing in its balance sheet reduction, with the full extent of drawdowns not starting until September. So by the end of October, the Fed\u2019s balance sheet might have reduced from $8.9 trillion to around $8.6 trillion. And by the end of the year it may be around $8.4 trillion. That\u2019s hardly anything in the greater scheme of things.<\/p>\n<p>And that might have been helpful had these numbers been reached in December of 2021, so that by December of 2022 monetary policy would be even tighter. But the Fed is, as it always has been, too slow to tighten.<\/p>\n<p>This has been the story of the Fed time after time. At the first sign of any trouble in markets, the Fed immediately turns on the monetary spigots. Trouble on Wall Street? Initiate quantitative easing. Problems in overnight repo markets? Start making credit freely available.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s no limit to how much the Fed will ease when there\u2019s even a whiff of trouble in financial markets. Yet on the other side, when the economy is facing high inflation due to that easing, the Fed is hesitant to admit that it needs to tighten. It\u2019s afraid of jumping the gun, and instead of taking an aggressive stance, it stands on the sidelines.<\/p>\n<p>It was market pressure that forced the Fed to hike 75 basis points yesterday, versus the 50 basis points that everyone had been expecting before then. And that\u2019s not good.<\/p>\n<p>If the Fed really wants to take on inflation, it has to be active in doing so, not reactive to market pressure. What we\u2019re seeing is a Fed that is following, not leading. And that doesn\u2019t inspire confidence that the Fed is actually going to put a dent in rising inflation.<\/p>\n<h2>Who Is Affected<\/h2>\n<p>Rising inflation is a problem for every American, but particularly for Americans with significant amounts of assets. You\u2019re now in a position in which your assets are losing nearly 9% of their purchasing power to inflation every year, something which could erode your ability to save and invest for the future.<\/p>\n<p>But if the Fed continues to push interest rates upward in order to combat that high inflation, it risks worsening what looks to be a likely recession. Even if the recession isn\u2019t as bad as 2008, it could still wipe trillions of dollars in wealth off the books, making millions of Americans worse off. And if the recession ends up surpassing the 55% losses we saw in 2008, it could set back generations of Americans, costing them years worth of investment gains.<\/p>\n<p>But just because the Fed is behind the curve doesn\u2019t mean you can afford to be too. Being behind the curve in a potential recessionary environment could mean that you suffer huge losses in the event that markets weaken, especially if the weakening occurs far faster than anyone anticipates.<\/p>\n<p>Many Americans have already started to protect their assets by buying gold and silver. Some have taken advantage of owning gold and silver through a <a href=\"https:\/\/goldco.com\/gold-ira\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gold IRA<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/goldco.com\/precious-metals-ira\/silver-ira\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">silver IRA<\/a>, maintaining the same tax advantages as their existing tax-advantaged retirement accounts while benefiting for the potential for gold and silver to make great gains.<\/p>\n<p>Others have preferred more traditional methods of buying gold and silver coins and storing them at home or in safe deposit boxes. No matter which way you prefer to buy gold and silver, Goldco can help you.<\/p>\n<p>With over a decade of experience and with thousands of satisfied customers, Goldco\u2019s experts are ready to work with you when you make the decision to buy gold and silver. Don\u2019t let your hard-earned wealth lose value due to the Fed\u2019s miscalculations. <a href=\"https:\/\/goldco.com\/contact-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Call Goldco today<\/a> to learn more about how gold and silver can help you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After the events of the past week, markets are finally starting to realize two things. First, the Federal Reserve hasn\u2019t done enough yet to curb inflation. Second, the Fed\u2019s attempts to curb inflation should have started a long time ago. That much is apparent to anyone who has been a longtime observer of monetary policy. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":37997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[207,208],"tags":[226,220,221,241],"class_list":["post-37995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-federal-reserve","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-recession"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.0 (Yoast SEO v25.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda: Why the Fed Is Behind the Curve &#8211; Goldco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed should have started hiking interest rates last year. 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